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šŸ“ø Peter Thiel: The "50-Year Stagnation" is over? + OpenAI panic

OpenAI’s "Code Red" & Secret Project Garlic, Peter Thiel on fixing the physical world, and how to run every top LLM in one place.

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My fellow AI explorers

While Google is taking a victory lap with Gemini 3 and their massive TPU architecture, the mood over at OpenAI has shifted from "cruise control" to "Code Red."

I’ve been tracking the "Scaling is Dead" narrative for months—hearing everyone from Ilya Sutskever to Andre Karpathy suggest we hit a wall. Then Google dropped Gemini 3, smashed the wall, and now the race is back on. We are witnessing a pivot back to hard science and massive pre-training runs.

In today’s edition:

  • 🚨 OpenAI’s "Code Red" & Secret Project Garlic

  • šŸ—ļø Can AI fix 50 years of stagnation? (The World of Atoms)

  • šŸ”€ How to run every top LLM (Gemini, GPT, Claude) in one place

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Open AI

Open AI Declares Code Red: Project 'Garlic' vs. Gemini 3

Sam Altman isn't taking Google's recent dominance lying down; reports confirm OpenAI is scrambling to regain the pre-training crown.

The "scaling is dead" narrative just died, and the labs are back to the grind.

Here’s what’s cooking:

  • Project Garlic: A new secret model specifically designed to counter Gemini 3’s gains in pre-training.

  • The Pre-training pivot: OpenAI’s Mark Chen admitted they are "building that muscle" again after focusing heavily on post-training (RLHF).

  • Delayed flagships: Development on other projects (like ads and shopping) is paused to focus purely on model quality and Chat reliability.

Google's Gemini 3 proved that with enough custom silicon (TPUs), scaling laws still hold. This caught many off guard, including OpenAI, who hadn't released a broadly deployed frontier model since GPT-4o in May 2024.

The Deep Dive:

For the last year, the smartest minds in AI claimed LLMs were hitting a plateau. They argued we needed new paradigms, not just more compute. Google proved them wrong. By leveraging their massive TPU fleet, they brute-forced a leap in intelligence.

Now, OpenAI is playing catch-up. They are incorporating bug fixes from another codenamed model ("Charlotte Pete") into Garlic. The goal? Prove that their infrastructure can match Google's silicon advantage.

šŸ”® Prediction: The "Application Layer" era is paused. We are entering the "infrastructure war." Expect 2025 to be defined not by new chatbots, but by who has the biggest clusters and the most efficient pre-training runs.

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The Physical World

We spend 90% of our time obsessing over code, but in a rare new interview, Peter Thiel dropped a heavy reality check. He argues that while the "world of bits" exploded, the "world of atoms" has been comatose since the 1970s. According to Thiel, AI is the only force capable of breaking a 50-year stagnation. Here is Thiel’s thesis:

  • The "Mafia-Adjacent" Problem: Thiel points out that digging tunnels in New York costs 10x what it costs in Paris. He explicitly calls the process "mafia-adjacent" and "corrupt labor union adjacent." It’s not a tech problem; it’s a political one.

  • The 50-Year Freeze: We haven't seen a new nuclear reactor design approved by the NRC in over 50 years. Thiel argues we are "culturally broken" and risk-averse in the physical world.

  • Manufacturing Comeback: Can AI bring factories back from China? Thiel says "yes, at the margins." If AI robotics lowers the cost of labor enough, the arbitrage of shipping jobs to Vietnam disappears.

The Deep Dive: Thiel’s core argument is that we don't need "a dozen miracles" in technology to fix the world; we just need to bypass the blockers. He believes AI can finally optimize the physical layer that has been stuck in the mud. But he offers a sobering warning: Technology alone can't fix "anti-industrial policies." While many of his peers are "exiting" (moving to Singapore or Switzerland), Thiel argues for staying and fighting the "right battles."

He views AI not just as a chatbot, but as the tool that finally makes American manufacturing and infrastructure competitive again—if we can get the regulators out of the way. šŸ”® 

Takeaway: The next massive AI winners won't just be software companies. They will be companies that use AI to navigate physical bureaucracy—think The Boring Company (tunnels) or next-gen nuclear startups. As Thiel puts it, the opportunity lies where things are "broken not because of science, but because of politics."

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Other Relevant AI News!

šŸ›ļø Black Friday online spending hit a record high as shoppers embraced new AI buying tools to find the best deals.

šŸŽ“ It is an "uneasy time" to be a CS student at Stanford, as AI coding capabilities force a rethinking of the curriculum.

šŸŽµ A secretive startup called Klay has jumped into the fray of AI music generation to compete with Suno and Udio.

ā˜ļø Amazon is challenging competitors by launching on-premises Nvidia AI factories to bring compute closer to enterprise data.

āš–ļø Meet Soxton, the AI-native law firm shaking up the industry by replacing billable hours with automated legal tech.

Golden Nuggets

  • 🧠 OpenAI is pivoting back to pre-training—admitting that scaling isn't dead, they just needed to work out the kinks.

  • āš›ļø AI can optimize the physical world, but it can't fix regulatory stagnation without political will.

  • šŸ’Ž Google's TPU bet has finally paid off, giving them a distinct advantage over Nvidia-dependent labs.

Would love to hear your thoughts on Code Red! Send me your thoughts by replying to this email (yes, I read them all :)

Until our next AI rendezvous,

Anthony | Founder of Uncover AI